Canadian Premier League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Forge at 67%, the draw at 22% and York United at 11%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 0.54.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Forge have 8 in 19 this season (2 of 9 at home), York United 10 in 17 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Forge and 0.54 for York United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 19 | 42% | 26% | 42% |
| York United | 17 | 59% | 53% | 76% |
More: Forge season stats · York United season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.