Super Liga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 85%, the draw at 10% and FK Partizan at 6%, from expected goals of 3.41 and 0.86.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 70% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 30% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 54% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.30, draw 5.50, FK Partizan 8.50.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FK Crvena Zvezda have 3 in 5 this season (3 of 4 at home), FK Partizan 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 3.41 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.86 for FK Partizan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 5 | 60% | 60% | 20% |
| FK Partizan | 6 | 83% | 67% | 83% |
More: FK Crvena Zvezda season stats · FK Partizan season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.