NB I · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:45. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Ferencvarosi TC at 60%, the draw at 21% and Ujpest at 20%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.12.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferencvarosi TC have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 1 at home), Ujpest 4 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 44%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.12 for Ujpest. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Ujpest | 6 | 67% | 50% | 83% |
More: Ferencvarosi TC season stats · Ujpest season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.