MLS · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Dallas at 68%, the draw at 18% and Sporting Kansas City at 14%, from expected goals of 2.34 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 67% | 68% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.88 | 33% | 32% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 65% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Dallas 1.45, draw 4.50, Sporting Kansas City 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Dallas have 15 in 22 this season (6 of 9 at home), Sporting Kansas City 17 in 22 (10 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.34 for FC Dallas and 0.98 for Sporting Kansas City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 22 | 68% | 55% | 64% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 22 | 77% | 41% | 59% |
More: FC Dallas season stats · Sporting Kansas City season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.