Bundesliga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 57%, the draw at 21% and FC Augsburg at 22%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.25.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 66% | 64% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 36% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.90, draw 3.90, FC Augsburg 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Eintracht Frankfurt have 1 in 1 this season, FC Augsburg 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.11 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.25 for FC Augsburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| FC Augsburg | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: Eintracht Frankfurt season stats · FC Augsburg season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.