Women's Championship (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Women's Championship (W) average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Durham W at 31%, the draw at 25% and Southampton W at 43%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Championship (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Durham W have 14 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Southampton W 13 in 22 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Durham W and 1.5 for Southampton W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham W | 22 | 64% | 18% | 73% |
| Southampton W | 22 | 59% | 36% | 55% |
More: Durham W season stats · Southampton W season stats · Women's Championship (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.