USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Detroit City at 42%, the draw at 37% and Hartford Athletic at 22%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 0.55.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 37% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 63% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 49% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Detroit City 1.70, draw 3.40, Hartford Athletic 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Detroit City have 9 in 21 this season (3 of 10 at home), Hartford Athletic 8 in 20 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 18%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Detroit City and 0.55 for Hartford Athletic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit City | 21 | 43% | 10% | 43% |
| Hartford Athletic | 20 | 40% | 20% | 35% |
More: Detroit City season stats · Hartford Athletic season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.