Primera Nacional · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Madryn at 49%, the draw at 29% and Ciudad de Bolívar at 22%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.73.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 32% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 68% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 40% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Deportivo Madryn 1.65, draw 3.25, Ciudad de Bolívar 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Madryn have 14 in 27 this season (7 of 13 at home), Ciudad de Bolívar 6 in 27 (2 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 24%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.73 for Ciudad de Bolívar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn | 27 | 52% | 26% | 52% |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 27 | 22% | 11% | 41% |
More: Deportivo Madryn season stats · Ciudad de Bolívar season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.