Primera Division · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Deportivo Garcilaso at 61%, the draw at 24% and Atletico Grau at 15%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Deportivo Garcilaso have 8 in 24 this season (6 of 12 at home), Atletico Grau 7 in 24 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.7 for Atletico Grau. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 24 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| Atletico Grau | 24 | 29% | 21% | 29% |
More: Deportivo Garcilaso season stats · Atletico Grau season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.