Primera Division · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Cusco at 71%, the draw at 20% and UCV Moquegua at 9%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 0.49.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 49% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 51% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 53% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cusco 1.27, draw 5.00, UCV Moquegua 10.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cusco have 15 in 24 this season (5 of 11 at home), UCV Moquegua 13 in 24 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.86 for Cusco and 0.49 for UCV Moquegua. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 24 | 63% | 33% | 67% |
| UCV Moquegua | 24 | 54% | 21% | 46% |
More: Cusco season stats · UCV Moquegua season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.