Serie A · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie A average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Corinthians at 55%, the draw at 27% and Chapecoense-sc at 18%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.7.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corinthians have 12 in 35 this season (6 of 17 at home), Chapecoense-sc 13 in 24 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Corinthians and 0.7 for Chapecoense-sc. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 35 | 34% | 11% | 43% |
| Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 54% | 38% | 63% |
More: Corinthians season stats · Chapecoense-sc season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.