MLS · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Columbus Crew at 51%, the draw at 27% and Colorado Rapids at 23%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 0.88.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 54% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 46% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 60% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Columbus Crew 2.15, draw 3.50, Colorado Rapids 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Columbus Crew have 16 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Colorado Rapids 10 in 22 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Columbus Crew and 0.88 for Colorado Rapids. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 22 | 73% | 41% | 77% |
| Colorado Rapids | 22 | 45% | 32% | 41% |
More: Columbus Crew season stats · Colorado Rapids season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.