FA WSL (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The FA WSL (W) average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Charlton Athletic W at 48%, the draw at 28% and Liverpool W at 24%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. FA WSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Charlton Athletic W have 8 in 23 this season (4 of 12 at home), Liverpool W 10 in 22 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Charlton Athletic W and 0.85 for Liverpool W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic W | 23 | 35% | 13% | 52% |
| Liverpool W | 22 | 45% | 27% | 50% |
More: Charlton Athletic W season stats · Liverpool W season stats · FA WSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.