MLS · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Charlotte at 52%, the draw at 23% and Houston Dynamo at 25%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 57% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 60% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Charlotte 2.15, draw 3.60, Houston Dynamo 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Charlotte have 15 in 22 this season (9 of 12 at home), Houston Dynamo 8 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Charlotte and 1.15 for Houston Dynamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 22 | 68% | 45% | 68% |
| Houston Dynamo | 22 | 36% | 18% | 36% |
More: Charlotte season stats · Houston Dynamo season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.