Primera Division · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 29% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Cerro at 26%, the draw at 38% and Racing Montevideo at 37%, from expected goals of 0.62 and 0.81.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 29% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 71% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 48% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cerro 4.10, draw 3.00, Racing Montevideo 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cerro have 10 in 26 this season (1 of 12 at home), Racing Montevideo 7 in 26 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 17%, from expected goals of 0.62 for Cerro and 0.81 for Racing Montevideo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 26 | 38% | 19% | 42% |
| Racing Montevideo | 26 | 27% | 15% | 46% |
More: Cerro season stats · Racing Montevideo season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.