Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Bayern Munich W at 76%, the draw at 16% and SC Freiburg W at 8%, from expected goals of 2.35 and 0.61.
The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayern Munich W have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), SC Freiburg W 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 72% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.35 for Bayern Munich W and 0.61 for SC Freiburg W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich W | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| SC Freiburg W | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
More: Bayern Munich W season stats · SC Freiburg W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.