Virsliga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Virsliga average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Auda at 75%, the draw at 17% and Grobiņa at 8%, from expected goals of 2.18 and 0.56.
The league sets the starting point. Virsliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Auda have 13 in 27 this season (8 of 14 at home), Grobiņa 9 in 28 (4 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 2.18 for Auda and 0.56 for Grobiņa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Auda season stats · Grobiņa season stats · Virsliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.