Atletico Madrid W v Deportivo Alavés W — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Liga F (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga F (W) average is 51%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Atletico Madrid W at 66%, the draw at 18% and Deportivo Alavés W at 16%, from expected goals of 2.39 and 1.1.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Atletico Madrid W have 1 in 1 this season, Deportivo Alavés W 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 49%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.39 for Atletico Madrid W and 1.1 for Deportivo Alavés W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Atletico Madrid W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.