Ajax W v De Graafschap W — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:45. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) average is 65%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Ajax W at 72%, the draw at 17% and De Graafschap W at 11%, from expected goals of 2.33 and 0.77.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Ajax W have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), De Graafschap W 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 65%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 65%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.33 for Ajax W and 0.77 for De Graafschap W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Ajax W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.