Primera Nacional · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 27% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 73% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Acassuso at 45%, the draw at 33% and All Boys at 22%, from expected goals of 1.04 and 0.64.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 73% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 37% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Acassuso 2.88, draw 2.75, All Boys 2.70.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Acassuso have 8 in 27 this season (4 of 13 at home), All Boys 5 in 27 (4 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 28%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 24%, from expected goals of 1.04 for Acassuso and 0.64 for All Boys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 27%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Acassuso season stats · All Boys season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.