La Liga · Saturday, 5 September 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Villarreal at 71%, the draw at 17% and Deportivo La Coruna at 12%, from expected goals of 2.44 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. La Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Villarreal have 2 in 3 this season, Deportivo La Coruna 1 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.44 for Villarreal and 0.88 for Deportivo La Coruna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 33% | 33% | 100% |
More: Villarreal season stats · Deportivo La Coruna season stats · La Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.