2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026. Final score 4–4 (half-time 3–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 57% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 62%, the draw at 22% and Energie Cottbus at 16%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfL Wolfsburg have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Energie Cottbus 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.93 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.85 for Energie Cottbus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Energie Cottbus | 3 | 100% | 67% | 67% |
More: VfL Wolfsburg season stats · Energie Cottbus season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.