Allsvenskan · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Vasteras SK FK at 29%, the draw at 20% and Sirius at 51%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 2.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 | 63% | 63% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 38% | 37% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 55% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vasteras SK FK 4.10, draw 4.00, Sirius 1.70.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vasteras SK FK have 11 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), Sirius 15 in 19 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Vasteras SK FK and 2.21 for Sirius. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK FK | 19 | 58% | 42% | 47% |
| Sirius | 19 | 79% | 53% | 63% |
More: Vasteras SK FK season stats · Sirius season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.