NWSL (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 02:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Utah Royals W at 56%, the draw at 24% and Boston Legacy W at 20%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Utah Royals W have 15 in 22 this season (6 of 10 at home), Boston Legacy W 12 in 22 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.69 for Utah Royals W and 0.88 for Boston Legacy W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Royals W | 22 | 68% | 32% | 68% |
| Boston Legacy W | 22 | 55% | 27% | 64% |
More: Utah Royals W season stats · Boston Legacy W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.