Primera Nacional · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 26% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 74% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 64% | No |
The result model puts Tristan Suarez at 46%, the draw at 32% and San Martin Tucuman at 22%, from expected goals of 1.11 and 0.65.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 26% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 74% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tristan Suarez 2.25, draw 2.75, San Martin Tucuman 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tristan Suarez have 8 in 26 this season (5 of 13 at home), San Martin Tucuman 7 in 27 (2 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 26%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 26%, from expected goals of 1.11 for Tristan Suarez and 0.65 for San Martin Tucuman. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 26 | 31% | 15% | 35% |
| San Martin Tucuman | 27 | 26% | 7% | 44% |
More: Tristan Suarez season stats · San Martin Tucuman season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.