Pro League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Pro League average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Standard Liege at 31%, the draw at 29% and Antwerp at 40%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 45% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 55% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 48% | -9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Standard Liege 2.15, draw 3.20, Antwerp 3.20.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Standard Liege have 3 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Antwerp 4 in 4 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Standard Liege and 1.21 for Antwerp. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 4 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
| Antwerp | 4 | 100% | 50% | 75% |
More: Standard Liege season stats · Antwerp season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.