3. Liga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 32%, the draw at 24% and MSV Duisburg at 44%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 1.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 60% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 40% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 56% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.40, draw 3.60, MSV Duisburg 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SSV Jahn Regensburg have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), MSV Duisburg 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.41 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.68 for MSV Duisburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSV Jahn Regensburg | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| MSV Duisburg | 3 | 100% | 33% | 33% |
More: SSV Jahn Regensburg season stats · MSV Duisburg season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.