First League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Spartak Varna at 23%, the draw at 26% and CSKA Sofia at 51%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 1.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 45% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 55% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 43% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Spartak Varna 7.00, draw 4.33, CSKA Sofia 1.40.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spartak Varna have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), CSKA Sofia 5 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Spartak Varna and 1.48 for CSKA Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| CSKA Sofia | 6 | 83% | 50% | 50% |
More: Spartak Varna season stats · CSKA Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.