National League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The National League average is 57%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Southend at 49%, the draw at 27% and Yeovil Town at 24%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 50% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 50% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 55% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Southend 1.62, draw 3.80, Yeovil Town 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Southend have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Yeovil Town 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Southend and 0.92 for Yeovil Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 5 | 60% | 60% | 80% |
| Yeovil Town | 5 | 60% | 20% | 80% |
More: Southend season stats · Yeovil Town season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.