Bundesliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Paderborn 07 at 57%, the draw at 21% and SC Freiburg at 22%, from expected goals of 2.03 and 1.19.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 57% | 63% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 37% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 63% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.10, draw 3.40, SC Freiburg 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Paderborn 07 have 0 in 1 this season, SC Freiburg 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.03 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.19 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SC Freiburg | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: SC Paderborn 07 season stats · SC Freiburg season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.