Bundesliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 62% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts SC Paderborn 07 at 46%, the draw at 25% and SC Freiburg at 30%, from expected goals of 1.69 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Paderborn 07 have 0 in 1 this season, SC Freiburg 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.69 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.32 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| SC Freiburg | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: SC Paderborn 07 season stats · SC Freiburg season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.