League One · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League One average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Queen of the South at 47%, the draw at 27% and Airdrie United at 25%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 0.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 46% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 54% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Queen of the South 2.40, draw 3.50, Airdrie United 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Queen of the South have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Airdrie United 2 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Queen of the South and 0.94 for Airdrie United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of the South | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Airdrie United | 5 | 40% | 40% | 40% |
More: Queen of the South season stats · Airdrie United season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.