Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 11:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Piteå W at 48%, the draw at 24% and Växjö W at 27%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.18.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Piteå W have 9 in 16 this season (5 of 8 at home), Växjö W 11 in 16 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Piteå W and 1.18 for Växjö W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Piteå W season stats · Växjö W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.