Liga 2 · Saturday, 5 September 2026. Final score 4–1 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 43% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Penafiel at 39%, the draw at 30% and Academica at 31%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Penafiel have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Academica 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 42% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Penafiel and 1.01 for Academica. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Penafiel season stats · Academica season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.