Championship · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Partick at 62%, the draw at 26% and Ayr Utd at 12%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 0.49.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 38% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 62% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 52% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Partick 1.60, draw 3.60, Ayr Utd 4.75.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Partick have 0 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Ayr Utd 0 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 14 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Partick and 0.49 for Ayr Utd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Partick season stats · Ayr Utd season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.