Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Brasileirao (W) average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Palmeiras W at 60%, the draw at 20% and Bahia W at 20%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Palmeiras W have 11 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Bahia W 11 in 18 (6 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.17 for Palmeiras W and 1.19 for Bahia W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras W | 18 | 61% | 22% | 44% |
| Bahia W | 18 | 61% | 33% | 67% |
More: Palmeiras W season stats · Bahia W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.