Premier League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Newcastle at 48%, the draw at 20% and Bournemouth at 31%, from expected goals of 2.2 and 1.75.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 59% | 63% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Newcastle 2.15, draw 3.50, Bournemouth 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newcastle have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Bournemouth 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.2 for Newcastle and 1.75 for Bournemouth. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Bournemouth | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
More: Newcastle season stats · Bournemouth season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.