Eredivisie · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eredivisie average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts NEC Nijmegen at 21%, the draw at 18% and Feyenoord at 61%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 2.57.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 68% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 32% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 68% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.88, draw 3.90, Feyenoord 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NEC Nijmegen have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Feyenoord 3 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 72% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 1.5 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.57 for Feyenoord. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| Feyenoord | 4 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
More: NEC Nijmegen season stats · Feyenoord season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.