Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026. Final score 5–1 (half-time 5–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 58% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Montpellier W at 38%, the draw at 25% and Toulouse W at 37%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.52.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Montpellier W have 0 in 0 this season, Toulouse W 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Montpellier W and 1.52 for Toulouse W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier W | 0 | — | — | — |
| Toulouse W | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Montpellier W season stats · Toulouse W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.