Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiere Ligue (W) average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Marseille W at 26%, the draw at 25% and Le Havre W at 48%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Marseille W have 13 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Le Havre W 15 in 21 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Marseille W and 1.57 for Le Havre W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille W | 22 | 59% | 32% | 50% |
| Le Havre W | 21 | 71% | 38% | 57% |
More: Marseille W season stats · Le Havre W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.