Super Liga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Macva at 43%, the draw at 32% and Radnicki 1923 at 26%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 0.77.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 41% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 59% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 50% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Macva 3.30, draw 3.30, Radnicki 1923 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Macva have 3 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Radnicki 1923 3 in 6 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Macva and 0.77 for Radnicki 1923. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macva | 7 | 43% | 29% | 43% |
| Radnicki 1923 | 6 | 50% | 0% | 33% |
More: Macva season stats · Radnicki 1923 season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.