Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Haifa at 61%, the draw at 20% and Hapoel Petah Tikva at 19%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.08.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 58% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 42% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 56% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Maccabi Haifa 1.67, draw 3.60, Hapoel Petah Tikva 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Haifa have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Hapoel Petah Tikva 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.11 for Maccabi Haifa and 1.08 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Haifa | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| Hapoel Petah Tikva | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Maccabi Haifa season stats · Hapoel Petah Tikva season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.