First League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First League average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Levski Sofia at 70%, the draw at 18% and CSKA 1948 at 12%, from expected goals of 2.23 and 0.81.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 52% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 45% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Levski Sofia 1.62, draw 3.70, CSKA 1948 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Levski Sofia have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 4 at home), CSKA 1948 5 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.23 for Levski Sofia and 0.81 for CSKA 1948. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 6 | 83% | 33% | 50% |
| CSKA 1948 | 7 | 71% | 43% | 71% |
More: Levski Sofia season stats · CSKA 1948 season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.