Superliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 29% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superliga average is 37%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Laci at 34%, the draw at 35% and Teuta Durrës at 31%, from expected goals of 0.82 and 0.78.
The league sets the starting point. Superliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 37% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Laci have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Teuta Durrës 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 36% and 28%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 33%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 22%, from expected goals of 0.82 for Laci and 0.78 for Teuta Durrës. Folding in 30% of that view gives 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laci | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Teuta Durrës | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Laci season stats · Teuta Durrës season stats · Superliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.