Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Hapoel Katamon at 26%, the draw at 23% and Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 51%, from expected goals of 1.22 and 1.78.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 53% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 47% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 54% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hapoel Katamon 2.40, draw 3.10, Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Katamon have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.22 for Hapoel Katamon and 1.78 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Katamon | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 2 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Hapoel Katamon season stats · Ironi Kiryat Shmona season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.