Serie B · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Goias at 37%, the draw at 31% and Fortaleza EC at 32%, from expected goals of 1.01 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 46% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Goias 2.25, draw 3.00, Fortaleza EC 3.30.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Goias have 8 in 25 this season (4 of 12 at home), Fortaleza EC 9 in 25 (3 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 1.01 for Goias and 0.92 for Fortaleza EC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 25 | 32% | 20% | 40% |
| Fortaleza EC | 25 | 36% | 12% | 40% |
More: Goias season stats · Fortaleza EC season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.