Liga Profesional · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 34%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Gimnasia L.P. at 30%, the draw at 30% and Tigre at 41%, from expected goals of 0.95 and 1.17.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 37% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 63% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 48% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gimnasia L.P. 2.45, draw 2.80, Tigre 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gimnasia L.P. have 13 in 25 this season (6 of 11 at home), Tigre 6 in 23 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 30%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 0.95 for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.17 for Tigre. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia L.P. | 25 | 52% | 20% | 44% |
| Tigre | 23 | 26% | 17% | 48% |
More: Gimnasia L.P. season stats · Tigre season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.