Super League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Vaduz at 47%, the draw at 23% and Lausanne at 30%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 66% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 34% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 67% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Vaduz 2.38, draw 3.60, Lausanne 2.60.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Vaduz have 5 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Lausanne 2 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 74% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.79 for FC Vaduz and 1.38 for Lausanne. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: FC Vaduz season stats · Lausanne season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.