Bundesliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Schalke 04 at 17%, the draw at 17% and Bayern München at 66%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 2.63.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 76% | 71% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 4.00 | 24% | 29% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 59% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Schalke 04 12.00, draw 7.50, Bayern München 1.14.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Schalke 04 have 1 in 1 this season, Bayern München 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 92%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 1.29 for FC Schalke 04 and 2.63 for Bayern München. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Bayern München | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: FC Schalke 04 season stats · Bayern München season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.