Liga I · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga I average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts FC Botosani at 52%, the draw at 30% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 17%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 0.57.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 38% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 62% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 49% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Botosani 2.20, draw 3.10, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Botosani have 3 in 7 this season (0 of 3 at home), Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0 in 7 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 34%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 1.23 for FC Botosani and 0.57 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani | 7 | 43% | 29% | 57% |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 7 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
More: FC Botosani season stats · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.