Premiership · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiership average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Dundee Utd at 35%, the draw at 30% and Falkirk at 35%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 51% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 49% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 54% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dundee Utd 2.05, draw 3.50, Falkirk 3.25.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dundee Utd have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Falkirk 1 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Dundee Utd and 1.04 for Falkirk. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd | 4 | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Falkirk | 3 | 33% | 0% | 33% |
More: Dundee Utd season stats · Falkirk season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.